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Key Inflation Metric Comes in Below Expectations

Surprised man looking at store receipt after shopping, holding a paper bag with healthy food. Guy in the kitchen.

Photo: NeonShot / iStock / Getty Images

A key inflation metric favored by the Federal Reserve came in lower than expectations even though prices remained elevated in September.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures index rose 0.3% in September and is up 2.8% from last year. Those figures were in line with the estimate of LSEG economists. 

The better news is with core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. That was up 0.2% month to month while the annual rate was 2.8%. The monthly rate was in line with the Dow Jones consensus, but the annual level was 0.1 percentage point lower.

The Federal Reserve meets for the final time in 2025 next week.


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